How this preview was built: We compared the publicly displayed 2026 names supplied from RunSignup's Find a Participant list with official Halloween 13K results from 2024 and 2025 and selected public race results from June–October 2026. This is a snapshot as of October 17, 2026, not a confirmed final start list. Late entrants, transfers, withdrawals and race-day performances may change the picture. Full 13K competitors and relay entrants are treated separately.

26.82sSeparated Gunther and Smith in 2025
0.30sSeparated Gavette and Roe in 2024
52025 contender photos matched by official bib
13KOne finish line, plenty of rematch stories

The early picks

MEN'S FULL 13K · EARLY PICK
Thomas Cummings

Cummings placed fourth overall at Halloween 2025 in 48:57.99 after finishing fifth in 2024 at 47:29.39. This June, he posted 17:59.85 for 5K at PawFest; on July 4, he ran 24:18.73 in the four-miler. Among the listed entrants with verified recent form, he is our clearest men's contender.

Watch for: the race to be decided by how well his road speed carries through 13K.
WOMEN'S FULL 13K · SLIGHT EDGE
Emily Gunther

The defending women's champion ran 52:23.32 at Halloween 2025. Her 2026 season includes the Vestal XX 20K women's win in 1:29:22.85 and a 20:14.32 women's-winning 5K at Finish Lyme in September. That's solid evidence at both shorter and longer distances, giving her a narrow early edge.

Watch for: strength over the final miles, not just a fast first 5K.
Our prediction: Cummings and Gunther are the names we'd circle first from this public entrant snapshot, but neither should be considered a lock. In particular, the women's field includes several capable challengers, and no finish-time projection can responsibly account for October 31 conditions or undisclosed entrants.

The women's race could be the real thriller

Consider the three women who occupied consecutive positions in last year's top ten: Gunther (52:23.32), Brieanne Smith (52:50.14), and Shelby Fisher (54:41.75). All three names appear in the 2026 Full 13K entry snapshot. They have compelling but different recent evidence.

Runner 2025 Halloween 13K Verified 2026 evidence Pre-race take
Emily Gunther 52:23.32 · first woman 1:29:22.85 Vestal XX 20K · 20:14.32 Finish Lyme 5K Early favorite: good evidence across distances
Shelby Fisher 54:41.75 · third woman 19:42 Kelly LaBare 5K, August 9 Strongest speed-based challenger; excellent upset candidate
Brieanne Smith 52:50.14 · second woman 20:34 Kelly LaBare 5K, August 9 Already proved she can stay close to Gunther over this 13K course
Samantha Snead 57:08.05 · second woman in 2024 20:24 Kelly LaBare 5K; 3:15:30 published Steamtown Marathon final time in October A credible contender with endurance evidence; recent marathon adds uncertainty about race-day freshness
Carlyne Fernald No directly verified 2025 result used 20:32 Kelly LaBare 5K, August 9 Could disrupt the expected top-four order

Gunther beat Smith by only 26.82 seconds at Halloween last year. Fisher's August 5K was faster than the other listed women's contenders' August or September times cited here, but a 5K is not a 13K. Snead has a strong history of road racing from 5K to marathon; her October Steamtown result is evidence of endurance, not proof she will be fully recovered for Halloween. If all five start, the women's podium could easily be different from 2025. Read Samantha Snead's race-history profile →

Men's field: Cummings versus Green—and the unknowns

Thomas Cummings is the strongest documented returning male contender in the shared 2026 Full 13K entries. In last year's event he finished fourth in 48:57.99; Zackary Green followed in fifth at 51:37.40. Green also appears in the 2026 5K top-three list at Owego Strawberry Festival, running approximately 19:21, and took fourth in the September Camptown trail 10K in 48:46. That creates an appealing return match, although a trail 10K and road 13K aren't interchangeable tests.

The 2025 overall champion John Salva (44:46.99) and runner-up Eric DeHart (46:35.74) do not appear in the Full 13K names provided for this preview, so we are not listing them as 2026 entrants. Nor is Steve Esposito listed as a Full 13K entrant in the supplied snapshot. New registrations could change that in a hurry. Jordan Varano, the 2014 Halloween champion, appears this year in the two-person relay category and is not part of the individual-win prediction.

Our early men's call: Cummings gets the nod on documented recent road results and past 13K consistency. Green is a recognizable challenger. Anyone making a precise men's podium forecast from this incomplete snapshot would be pretending to know more than the published results allow.

WOMEN'S CHAMPIONSHIP REMATCH26.82 seconds

2025 Halloween 13K: Emily Gunther narrowly ahead of Brieanne Smith. Both appear in the 2026 entry snapshot.

THE TWO-YEAR PHOTO-FINISH RIVALRY0.15s → 0.35s

Caitlin Zarnoch and Ryan McNamara crossed almost together in both the 2024 and 2025 13K.

Two genuine reversal stories, plus a double photo finish

HEAD-TO-HEAD REVERSAL · FULL 13K

Sara Gavette vs. Anthony Roe

2024: Gavette 1:31:39.64, Roe 1:31:39.94. Advantage Gavette by 0.30 seconds.

2025: Roe 1:32:17.01, Gavette 1:32:21.65. Advantage Roe by 4.64 seconds.

Both are listed for the 2026 individual 13K. A rivalry doesn't have to decide the overall victory to produce a finish worth watching.

CONSISTENTLY CLOSE · FULL 13K

Caitlin Zarnoch vs. Ryan McNamara

2024: Zarnoch 1:30:47.03, McNamara 1:30:47.18. Gap 0.15 seconds.

2025: Zarnoch 1:37:51.96, McNamara 1:37:52.31. Gap 0.35 seconds.

Two consecutive years, the same finishing order, and less than a second between them. They're both listed again.

Another comeback watch: Don Lavin (57:23.57), Lydia Dillon (57:36.30), and Katelyn Felter (58:17.04) finished 12th, 13th and 14th overall in 2025—just 53.47 seconds from first to third in that trio. All three are in the 2026 Full 13K snapshot.

Don't overlook the relay—but keep it separate

Two-person relay entrants run different legs, so comparing their relay times directly with individual 13K times would be misleading. Jordan Varano is an interesting example: winner of the entire 13K in 2014, second to Esposito in 2015, and listed for the relay in 2026. Christopher Simser is also in the 2026 relay list, not the individual 13K; his 2014–2015 historical head-to-head reversal with Jennifer Smith belongs in the race-history discussion, not an individual 2026 showdown.

From the 2025 gallery: past champions and rivals

These bib-indexed photographs are historical context. The 2025 winner and runner-up are not shown as 2026 Full 13K entrants in the snapshot used for this preview.

What happens after Halloween?

The best pre-race predictions are ones we're willing to revisit. After October 31, Confluence can link the final race results here, identify which head-to-head matchups actually materialized, note which picks held up, and use the results to expand athlete race histories. The race card should connect readers to both Find a Participant now and the official results after the race.

How to read these predictions: Entrant names came from public 2026 participant listings supplied October 17, 2026; they are not start confirmations. Historic race performances are publicly reported results matched by runner name and, where available, location or race history; common names can still cause ambiguity. Comparisons between 5K, 10K, 13K, 15K, half marathon and marathon courses are qualitative, not predicted conversion times. No undisclosed training, injury, health, travel or recovery information is assumed. Individual 13K, two-person relay and volunteer entries are kept separate. This is independent Confluence Running editorial coverage, not an organizer's official ranking or odds.

Race results and source links

Published October 17, 2026 · Updated when additional verified records become available.

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